1. Scales in drip trays

I’ve been going on about weighing espresso for a while, as have many others in the industry. This year we are going to see busy retail operations implement scales into drip trays for use with every drink. I also think this year a manufacturer of espresso machines will start to take this seriously and start R&D on building them in a standard.

2. C-market will peak, but won’t drop back too far

A lot of people are watching the C market, aware that it will have a frustrating impact on coffee quality as producers may have less incentive to pick/prep the highest quality when the prices are high for “ok” quality. There are certainly a number of factors at play in the high prices beyond the straight supply/demand relationship. Brazil’s entry into the C will probably have some effect, but I think we’re likely looking at small crops from places like Kenya and Colombia again which will help keep prices relatively high.

3. The WBC Prediction

This is going to be hard to quantify, but I think holding the WBC in a producing country will have a rejuvenating effect for those involved in the competition. I think it will be a great event and I hope people take full advantage of it being in a coffee producing country. Also I think the Scandinavians will be back in contention again.

4. A focus on service

We’ve had some focus on one cup brewing for a while now, and I don’t think the cycle is coming back round to espresso yet. I think there will more focus than before on the practical side of customer service in coffee. More discussion, some actual techniques and ideas being shared. The coffee industry will start to pay more attention to other industries. The winning routine at WBC will drive this idea home too.

5. More brewed coffee in the UK

I think that brewed coffee will continue to grow its market share. I say this without knowing what its current market share (if anyone has any data I’d love to see it.) Starbucks have long been the only chain in the UK to really do it properly. I think that the chains will join the independents in helping grow this market, though I think they’ll likely use it as a low cost, recession focused item whereas independents will be using it to produce higher value drinks.

Thoughts, comments and your predictions always very welcome in the comments!

Just for fun I am going to make another 5 predictions and we’ll wait and see how they turn out!

1).    Coffee packaging takes a big step forward

Think for a moment about how many kilos of espresso are brewed every day.  Think about how many bags are thrown away each day.  Good packaging is a necessity for quality, but it isn’t recyclable and that is becoming more and more of an issue.  The reusable, valved buckets we’ve been using at Square Mile have been great, and I am glad the bulk of our production goes out in them, but we still have to bag a good deal up.  Hopefully this year we’ll see someone clever devil make a breakthrough and move coffee packaging at least a little closer to closed loop recycling.

2).    Improved green coffee packaging

Vacuum packaging has started to take hold in coffee, but I don’t yet believe it is the pinnacle of coffee packaging.  I think jute has to go, for speciality coffee anyway, and I am head over heals in love with the smell of greens when you open a vac packed bag up (I might love it more than the smell of roasted coffee!).  However I have a few reservations about the long term storage of green coffee in vacuum packaging and I think slowly but surely we are gathering more and more information about how it affects the greens and we can continue to improve the materials and the process.

3).    Someone invents a grinder worth getting excited about

It probably won’t be a major grinder manufacturer.  In fact it definitely won’t be.  However I think there are people out there tinkering and experimenting and I think this year someone will present an idea that will slowly invade espresso grinder production and improve it immeasurably.

4).    Decent coffee press in the UK

It has been interesting to read the increasing number of good articles on coffee appearing in the NYT and the WSJ.  Most of these articles were indeed about coffee in New York but the scope has slowly widened and I hope the trend continues not only in the US, but spreads to the UK.  London’s burgeoning coffee scene is worth writing about!  Just getting the media to take coffee a little seriously would be a massive leap forward.

5).    Producing countries in the WBC Top 6.

An oddly specific prediction but I think this year there will be at least one barista from a producing country really pushing for the top spot.  I think the limitations of choice and greens variety that many feel were on national champions have gone.  Every producing country competing has great coffee growing there and I think judges are more open to that than ever.  I think the shift away from tech and onto sensory open up the field further still.  As for which countries – I am not that brave!

UPDATE: I suppose I ought to clarify this a little more (thanks Jay) – I think at least two of the top 6 will be from producing countries and I think one will be in the top 3.  I did know that various producing countries have been in the finals before (Silvia from Brazil was in the finals with me in Tokyo – so I ought to remember!)

What do people think?  Does anyone have their own predictions that they would care to share?  Post them in the comments or in your own blog and post a link here!