Well. I really didn’t do well this time! Having done ok on my 2008 predictions I must say that I can’t quite claim the same level of success for 2009.
My predicitons were:
1. Coffee Packaging takes a step forward
Nothing here to report. I don’t know if anyone has done anything interesting in 2009 with roasted coffee packaging but I certainly haven’t seen it, and I don’t think it has had an impact. A poor prediction.
2. Improved Green Coffee Packaging
This is a tricky one. I am sure that this year people have received record quantities of vac-packed, or grainpro packed coffee. I know that a substantial amount of coffee that we’ve bought this year has come this way. I also know that it leaves me conflicted over the amount of waste this packaging generates. An OK, passable, but not great effort at prediction.
3. Someone invents a grinder worth getting excited about.
Nope. Nothing here. I know why, from an R&D cost Vs sales perspective, this hasn’t happened. For some reason I guess I thought it just would. A complete failure of a prediction.
4. Decent Coffee Press in the UK.
I am going to claim this one. You could argue that the quality of writing hasn’t been where it could be but I think this year we’ve seen unprecedented levels of coverage for speciality coffee – mostly in response to Gwilym’s win – but also covering the blossoming of London’s coffee culture. I hope it continues. A pretty successful prediction.
5. Producing countries in the WBC Top 6.
Another utterly failed prediction. Raul was just outside the top 6, and I think there was some surprise at who made the top 6 and who didn’t. Nonetheless I can’t even vaguely claim this one as successful.
So… Barely 1.5 out of 5 I reckon. Not good work. I shall have to try harder for my prediction for 2010, or just give up entirely! I hope next time I don’t confuse speculation and prediction with wishful thinking!
The one interesting thing, in terms of me trying to salvage my credibility, are the two main predictions that I got wrong in 2008 – the rise of pressure profiling and increase in green coffee pricing – have somewhat come true in 2009.
There can be no argument on the pressure profiling front. From the Slayer to Strada, but also to Cimbali’s rather impressive pressure profiling machine – the technology is now here and seems to have perhaps captured the interest of manufacturers more than baristas but I think it will continue to be incorporated into new machines.
As for green coffee – it may not yet have reached the peak of March 3rd but after a steep drop it is definitely back on the rise:
(couresy of Wolfram Alpha – the rather splendid search engine for this sort of thing.)
I’ll post my predictions for 2010 around New Year.