Predictions for 2011 – Analysis

January 2nd, 2012

These posts seem to roll around awfully quickly. I suppose I enjoy them because they are a chronicle of what I was thinking about a year ago. Here’s the 2011 predictions post.

OK – time to see how I did:

1 – Scales in Drip Trays

We saw La Marzocco show a Strada with these in at SCAA and at HOST. Aside from that they haven’t really spread much further (yet – I hope!). Not really sure this is a failure of a prediction, nor a success.

2 – C-market will peak, but won’t drop back too far

I think we have seen a peak (for now), and looking at the graph of the last 2 years I’d say that my (fairly safe) prediction was accurate.

3 – The WBC Prediction

I’ll need to break this one down:

This is going to be hard to quantify, but I think holding the WBC in a producing country will have a rejuvenating effect for those involved in the competition. I think it will be a great event and I hope people take full advantage of it being in a coffee producing country.

I think this was pretty accurate.

Also I think the Scandinavians will be back in contention again.

Unfortunately this was not. I’m still going to try and claim the point!

4 – A focus on service

This was certainly on my mind a lot this year, and I very much enjoyed the opportunity to talk on the subject at SCAA’s Symposium and at the splendid Tamper Tantrum Live event. I’m not really sure if there was an uptick on the focus on service in the rest of the industry though. I’ll leave this one to you….

5 – More Brewed Coffee in the UK

I can’t work out if it is a good tactic to keep predicting things that are really difficult to quantify. This would fall into that category. We’re certainly roasting more coffee to be drunk as brewed coffee rather than espresso, I see more places including it in their offering and I see a small increase in interest in doing batch brewed coffee really well. I think it has definitely grown more than slowed down. You may disagree.

So. I guess I am claiming 3 or 4 out of 5 correct. Please disagree angrily with me in the comments. I will try and post up a new set of predictions in the next few days.

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